The South African Audience Research Foundation has announced what it calls a “new benchmark for media consumption”, the upshot of which is that Amps June 2013 cannot be compare with any previous Amps releases.
The reason for this change is due to the “marked effect” of of the inclusion of population estimates modelled on the latest data from Statistics SA’s Census 2011, Saarf says. And the impact will also affect the upcoming Rams and Tams numbers once once the population estimates are included in these surveys from November 2013, and from early next year, respectively. Previous estimates were based on data from Census 2001.
Saarf explained since official census data is only available every 10 years, population estimates must be made to ensure that its media currencies stay abreast of population changes in the country so IHS, the organisation’s demographic contractor, uses sources of data such as birth, death, emigration, immigration, and AIDS infection rates.
Previous population updates were done for AMPS Dec 11 (Jan-Dec 2011), released in March 2012, and reflecting mid-2011 estimates supplied by IHS. In 2012, however, population levels were not updated, since the results of Census 2011 were imminent. With the recent release of Census 2011 data down to a magisterial district level, SAARF has now incorporated this 2011 population data.
The updated 2013 IHS estimates, are: 37.214-million, which is an increase of 6.5% over the previous survey (Amps Dec 12, Jan-Dec 2012), with an additional 2.279-million adults in the market. The household population has increased by 6.4% to 14.978-million: an additional 904 000 households. The inclusion of 2.279-million more adults to the Amps universe has established a new trend line.
“Changes seen are not necessarily true increases or decreases, but rather a re-adjustment, giving the market a better estimate of reality based on the latest population information,” Saarf said.
“Amps Jun 2013 sets a new benchmark for all media consumption data, since it is impossible to say with statistical certainty whether changes seen in this Amps release over previous surveys are due to the large changes in population data, or to actual market forces,” Saarf said in a statement. “This means that any changes in media consumption may or may not be an indication of shifting performance in the marketplace.
The changes in population have not been uniform across the country. Each province has been affected to a different extent, with a very clear migration taking place to the country’s large economic centres.
The top five municipalities – Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban, Pretoria and Ekurhuleni – now contribute 53.2% of South Africa’s economic output.
Almost all population increases have been into the metro areas, which are significantly up by over two million. Consequently, the country’s proportion of urban/rural has shifted, with the rural component in decline. The urban:rural split is now 64.2%:35.8%, compared to 62%:38% in Amps Dec 12.
The black population has been the biggest beneficiary of the 2.279-million rise in population. There are”
2.2-million more black adults in the Amps universe, taking this group up to 28.985-million, or 77.9% of total (over the previous survey’s 76.7%).
The white population is down by 375 000, to 3.833-million. It now represents 10.3% of the total population, compared to 12.0% previously.
The coloured population has kept pace with previous levels (rising from 8.6% to 9.2%), with a gain of 403 000 people, taking it up to 3.410-million.
The Indian population has remained proportionally stable (2.6%), despite a growth of 50 000 in total. This group’s total is now 986 000.
Average household income shows a similar distribution across the income brackets as in the previous survey. The population is slightly more well off, with the average household income per month now R9 364.
Income groups Amps Dec 12 Amps Jun 13
Up to R799 2.8% 2.7%
R800-R1 399 9.3% 9.4%
R1 400-R2 499 11.9% 11.5%
R2 500-R4 999 21.4% 20.8%
R5 000-R7 999 16.4% 16.6%
R8 000-R10 999 11.8% 11.5%
R11 000-R19 999 13.0% 13.6%
R20 000+ 13.3% 14.0%
Results not compared to previous survey.
Amps Jun 2013, therefore, marks the beginning of a new “reality”.
“Media data cannot be compared to previous surveys. Changes seen are not necessarily true increases or decreases, but rather a re-adjustment, giving the market a better estimate of reality based on the latest population information,” said Saarf.
The effects of the population changes cannot be unpacked from the current figures by removing additional audience groups, or adjusting declined demographics upwards.
Media inflation calculations are therefore also invalid, since it is statistically unsound to make comparisons with previous Amps releases.
Average issue readership of any Amps newspaper/magazine is 63.6%, with a total adult audience of 23.684-million.
Print owners are advised to look at the data underpinning their topline readership figures to get a better understanding of what might have happened to these figures.
For example, Drum’s readership is 284 000 stronger after the population update, while Bona’s is down by 162 000.
On closer inspection of the two titles’ readership profiles, however, one would see that while Drum has a third of its readers in Gauteng, which experienced a massive boost in its population, Bona only has a quarter of its readers from this province. Bona has more readers in the Eastern Cape, Free State and KwaZulu-Natal, all three of which lost population.
Average issue readership of any daily is 29.4%, or 10.936-million.
The average number of daily AMPS newspaper publications read, based on readers, is 1.31.
The new benchmark penetration for weeklies is 31.8%, or 11.830-million readers.
The average number of weekly AMPS newspaper publications read, based on readers, is 1.70.
This sector’s new benchmark readership is 2.7%, or 995 000 readers.
EFFECT OF REGIONALISATION ON NEWSPAPERS
While the inclusion of the new population data has not caused large penetration changes on a general publication level, the move to regionalise newspaper titles has had a noticeable impact on a number of regional publications.
From AMPS Jun 13, all newspapers are only analysed in their distribution areas, which were provided to SAARF by the newspaper owners.
When readership is picked up outside of the publication’s official area of distribution, this readership has been removed from the AMPS database, since owners of regional newspapers agreed that this readership is not of value to advertisers.
Magazine penetration has held its own against the new population update – if it were possible to compare current figures with the previous survey, few statistically significant changes would be seen.
The new benchmark for total magazine readership is 46.8%, or 17.403-million readers.
The new benchmark average issue readerships for the various magazine formats are:
- Any weekly magazine: 24.4% readership, 9.080-million readers.
- Any fortnightly magazine: 3.9% readership, 1.436-million readers.
- Any monthly magazine: 36.7% readership, 13.674-million readers.
- Any alternate-monthly magazine: 4.8% readership, 1.800-million.
- Any quarterly magazine: 2.0% readership, 732 000 readers.
The average number of AMPS magazines read, based on readers, is 3.09.
FIRST READERSHIP FIGURES
- Grazia’s first 12-month measure is 63 000, or 0.2% penetration into the adult (15+) market. The title’s audience is 78.1% female, 40.6% are aged 25-34, 29.9% are aged 15-24, and 68.7% are in LSM 8-10.
- Good Housekeeping first 12-month readership figure is 137 000, or 0.4% reach. The publication’s readers are majority female (82.7%), aged 50+ (31.1%), and in LSM 8-10 (59.3%).
- Top Gear has started with a bang, achieving a 12-month readership of 731 000, or 2.0% readership. The majority of readers are male (81.5%), aged 15-24 (42.6%), and 54.4% are in LSM 8-10.
The new benchmark figure for television viewing is 91.6%, with 34.095-million viewers.
The new benchmarks for individual television platforms (7 days) are, in order of size:
- SABC 1 is viewed by 79.3% of the total adult population, amounting to 29.521-million viewers.
- SABC 2: 71.2% viewership, 26.479-million viewers.
- e.tv: 66.7%, viewed by 24.836-million adults.
- SABC 3: 56.6% viewership, 21.062-million viewers.
- Total DStv: reaching 31.4% of adults (11.669-million).
- Total community TV: 10.0% viewership, 3.738-million viewers. Soweto TV commands 9% of viewing, showing its dominance in the community TV sector.
- M-Net main channel: 6.9%, 2.560-million.
- Total Top TV: 1.3%, 483 000.
The new benchmark for radio listenership is 34.257-million listeners per week, with a reach of 92.1%.
- Total commercial radio: 33.272-million listeners, with a reach of 89.4% (past 7 days); and
- Total community radio: 9.375-million listeners, with a reach of 25.2% (past 7 days).
RADIO LISTENING PLATFORMS
On top of listening on traditional devices, 29.5% of adults listen to radio on their cellphones, 5.8% listen online, and 0.5% listen on DStv’s audio channels.
OUT OF HOME
In addition to the population update making comparison with previous AMPS releases impossible, this media sector has also completely changed its questionnaire methodology as of AMPS Jun 13.
For both these reasons, comparisons with previous AMPS data are invalid.
- Access internet yesterday: 6.922-million users, 18.6% of the total adult population.
- Access internet in the past 7 days: 9.035-million users, 24.3%
- Access internet in the past 4 weeks: 10.182-million users, 27.4%
- Cinema up to 7 days: 415 000 people attended a screening, 1.1% of total adults
- Cinema up to 4 weeks: 1.475-million people attended, 4.0% of total adults