Media Shop Talk from The Media Shop has published the new Media Inflation Watch (MIW) figures as released by Mike Leahy. These figures cover January – December 2010 compared to the same period 2009.
Television
Rates: +5.84%,
Performance: +6.27%
MIW Index (CPM): +4.35%
The fascinating tussle between free-to-air and paid continues. The former yields Rates +4.1% for the full year, audience -7.0% and an MIW Index (CPM) of +12.5%. Pay TV (Oracle – so far) has registered higher rates at +10.0%, but increased audience by a massive +39.3%, leading to a decreased MIW Index (CPM) year on year of -15.9%.
As I have noted in the last few quarters newsletter one would expect that an increase of rate increase of (almost) 6% and a performance increase of just over 6% would lead to a MIW (CPM) increase of zero or just under. But there is a massive skew caused by audience slide on the free-to-air side versus the huge growth of paid. That said, free-to-air CPM’s are (currently) still much cheaper than paid.
Rates: +7.30%
Performance: -3.60%
MIW Index (CPM): +12.21%
The worst performing of the categories over the full year. Ranges from a low of +4.7% MIW (CPM) for community newspapers to a MIW (CPM) high of +15.9% for dailies. Falling circulations is the problem for many (but not all) print titles.
Radio
Rates: +8.57%
Performance: +1.46%
MIW Index (CPM): +8.67%
These numbers are provisional in that the radio audiences covering the last quarter are yet to be released. Nevertheless they represent the most positive (provisional) annual result seen by radio for some years. However Primedia’s important stations 94.7 (Highveld) and Kfm together with Yfm didn’t perform nearly as well as their competitors and managed to skew the totals.
Out of Home
Rates: +0.4%
MIW Index (CPM): +0.4%
Little change from the previous releases in 2010. Outdoor contractors are holding right back.
Cinema
Rates: +6.40%
Performance: +1.20%
MIW Index (CPM): 5.20%
Modest rate increases together with good performance numbers lead to a competitive CPM increase.
Total All Media
Rates: +6.49%
Performance: +1.59%
MIW Index (CPM): +7.66%
As mentioned in previous releases, All Media numbers are largely driven by TV, which accounts for some 43% of media spend, and skewed by pay TV, which takes 12.4% of the total. If we stripped out pay TV (ie., Oracle) the figures look more logical but somewhat less palatable: rates +5.24%, performance -3.28%, MIW Index (CPM) +9.63%.
In conclusion: The 2010 totals are higher than 2009 – rates 6.5% vs 4.2% and MIW (CPM) 7.7% vs 6.3%. 2010 sits beneath the average of increases registered over the last 11 years – rates 7.9% and MIW (CPM) 8.5%.
