The Audit Bureau of Circulations (ABC) is releasing its latest figures today, reporting on the last quarter of 2011. In its presentation, it said it believed that growing unemployment and the rising cost of living – particularly electricity, water and petrol – will put a dampener on spending in early 2012.
It said that Econometrix, in its recent Consumer and Market Trends report, announced “the outlook for total media ad spend for 2012 is slightly negative as real GDP growth is expected to be around 2.6%…” It also said that because household consumption expenditure growth is expected to slow down, “this decrease will impact directly on the growth in ad spend”.
“If one links GDP growth to media inflation of 6-8% and declining media owner discounts, both media owners and advertisers may well be facing one of the toughest advertising years we’ve seen in recent years,” the ABC said in its presentation.
In this preview to the actual presentation, TheMediaOnline gives the gist of the findings. More detailed analysis will follow in our newsletter tomorrow.
Newspapers
Total newspaper circulation increased by 114 000 copies compared to the previous quarter, mainly the result of increases in free and community newspapers offset by losses in all other categories.
Daily newspapers
97 000 fewer (-6.7%) papers sold compared to the same quarter last year, but only 13 000 less than the prior quarter. Single copy sales declined by 7% and subscriptions by 8.3%. When compared to the prior year English titles decreased by 6.7%, and Afrikaans titles by 9.3%. Vernacular titles showed an increase of 2.7%.
Isolezwe reflected the largest increase (2.7%). Pretoria News suffered the largest percentage decline (-12.5%), while Daily Sun suffered the largest numerical decline (-33 600 copies).
Weekly newspapers
Total circulation reflected a decline of 3% or 17 000 copies with both single copy sales and subscriptions down. Ilanga showed the highest growth (2.7%), while Umafrika showed the largest percentage decline (-28.7%) and Soccer Laduma showed the largest numerical decline (-13 000 copies).
Weekend newspapers
Circulation declined by 4.9% (108,000 copies) over the prior year, and by 2.2% (46 000) over the previous quarter. Single copy sales declined by 5.8% (96 000 copies), and subscriptions by 1.3% (6 000 copies). Of the seven largest titles, only Sunday Times and Isolezwe ngeSonto showed increases. In the smaller titles, Volksblad Saturday (7.5%) and Isolezwe ngeSonto (6.95%) showed the largest increases, while Sondag (-21%) Ilanga Langasonto (-10%), and Rapport (-10%) suffered the largest declines.
Community newspapers
Total circulation increased by 8.5% because of a new entrant. Real circulation remains stable.
Free newspapers
Whilst total circulation increased by 11% (589, 000 copies) because of new entrants, real circulation remained stable.
Hybrid newspapers
The Times grew paid circulation significantly, both Single Copy Sales (42%, 12 700 copies) and subscriptions (39%, 26,000 copies). Mogul Post/Pos increased circulation by an outstanding 206%, albeit off a small base.
Magazines
Total magazine circulation increased significantly over the previous quarter, because of a large new custom title, Vodacom Now! Consumer magazines showed growth, mainly because of new entrants. Whilst total circulation increased by 1.4%, real circulation declined by 3.7% (233 000 copies).
Consumer/ business/news category
The Category increased by 9.8%. Entrepreneur increased by 34%! Noseweek (-12.9%) reflected the largest decline.
Consumer/family interest
Of the quarterly reporting titles, Drum (7%) showed the largest increase. LIG (-10%) reflected the largest decline.
Consumer/home
Of the quarterly reporting titles, only House and Leisure showed an increase (9.4%). SA Garden/SA Tuin (-24.4%), and the three regional Property magazines showed the largest declines.
Consumer/male
Popular Mechanics increased by 8.7%. Tech-Smart (-24.8%) and FHM (-21.7%) reflected the largest declines.
Consumer/parenting
Mamas and Papas increased significantly (55%), although mainly through sales below 50% of cover price. Living and Loving reflected the largest decline (-24%).
Consumer/sport and hobby
SA Hunter/Jagter (13%) and Fitness Magazine (13%) showed the largest increases. Golf Digest declined by 58% because of the loss of World of Golf contract. Sports Illustrated declined by 32.4%.
Consumer/travel
Of the December reporting titles, Wegsleep Oordgids reflected the largest increase (17.7%). SA Country Life (-9%) showed the largest decline.
Consumer/women’s general
Kuier grew 100% (off the chart!) – all in single copy sales. Destiny Magazine increased by 29.5%. Fair Lady (-33%) and Cleo (-24%) suffered the largest declines.
B2B Magazines
While total circulation increased by 3% because of new entrants, real circulation declined by 3%. Bulk distribution increased by 23.5%, and bulk free by 69%, albeit off a small base.
B2B/hospitality, catering and tourism
Food and Beverage Reporter (7.6%) and SA Conference Directory (6.7%) showed the largest increases.
Of the December reporting titles, Conference Venues (-14.8%) reflected the largest decline.
B2B/industry
25° in Africa (19.9%) and Cold Chain (13.9%) reflected the largest increases.
Northern Cape Business (-22.3%) showed the largest decline.
B2B/management
The african.org (66.4%), Business Brief (28.7%) and South Africa’s Top Performing Companies (28.7%) showed the largest increases. CEO Magazine (-19%) reflected the largest decline.
B2B/retail
Front Shop (25%) reflected the largest increase.
Custom Magazines
While total circulation decreased by 1%, real circulation increased by 3%. Individual distribution fell by 1% and bulk distribution by 16%. Paid circulation increased by 10.4%.
Custom/entertainment
Dish Compact (11.3%) reflected the highest growth, while M showed the largest decline (-39%).
Custom/leisure
Both Vision Magazine (40.6%) and Good Taste (31.2%) showed considerable growth. Of the December reporting titles, Signature: Diners Club (-15.2%) reflected the largest decline.
Custom/retail
Foschini Soccer Club grew an incredible 182%! (off the chart). Clicks Club Card (40%) and Club X (35%) also showed significant increases. Beares Club (-42%) and A-Plus (-34%) declined the most.
