The latest Media Inflation Watch (MIW) figures are out that look at 2013. All figures are based on data from January 2013 to Dec 2013 compared to January 2012 to December 2012.
An important technical note: new weighting measures were introduced into the television measurement survey, TAMS, in 2012 Q3. Therefore audiences of 2012 Q3 and later should not be compared to audiences of previous periods as this would in essence be trying to compare apples and pears to produce a 2012 annual average. The end result is that a CPM (cost per thousand) for that year cannot be calculated. Accordingly the only real measure to trend for the year is the Rate Index (the increase or decrease in media rates that media owners charge advertisers) and which is duplicated in the MIW (CPM) Index. This is in line with previous occasions when performance methodology has changed.
Similarly RAMS changes in 2011, and now 2013 Q3, means that an average radio station performance cannot be calculated and again the Rate Index is used in the MIW (CPM) Index for 2011, 2012 and 2013.
In the cinema medium, Cinemark supplies rates and monthly audience figures for their top 15 houses (140 screens). These houses account for the highest advertiser demand. Accordingly, 2013 January to March and later periods uses the new data. Increases on previous periods are based on similar data which is not released or shown in Inflation Watch.
Please note: It is evident that audience changes in TV, radio and cinema mediums have taken place and one cannot calculate the extent of these changes with any degree of confidence. Users are urged to study the quarterly figures to get a sense of direction.
Television
Rates -0.83%
Performance 0.00% (refer to technical note above)
MIW Index (CPM) -0.83%
TV accounts for over 45% of the Index. Thus a negative Rate Index has had the effect of reducing the All Media Rate (the weighted overall inflation rate with all media platforms taken into account) quite dramatically. The All Media Rate without TV is calculated to be more than double at 7%. But there is more to the TV number than a straight rate decline because the free-to-air and paid TV options behave very differently.
Free-to-air’s rates are pretty flat at +3.15%.
At DStv Media Sales, the rates for many of its station’s packages were cut and/or additional spots were provided in 2012 Q2. This continues in 2013 which, combined with a greater proportion of packages sold (package sales are now dropped for KykNet) and compared to loose spots, enables a very buyer friendly -3.82% Rate Index. This decrease combined with free-to-air’s minimal increase, brings the all TV figure right down.
Rates +5.81%
Performance -5.76%
MIW Index (CPM) +12.76%
The print media category’s dynamic continues as per the last few releases of Inflation Watch: performance deflation in terms of circulation decline is a bigger concern than rate cost inflation.
This has been most notable amongst the dailies which added +5.4% to the rate but lost 7.0% in performance (circulation). This results in a +13.62% MIW Index (CPM). Eight titles have a MIW Index (CPM) over 15% but only one title, The Times, managed to increase its circulation, at a miserly +0.1%.
Weekend and weekly newspapers are a mixed bunch but the category is now faring marginally worse than dailies. The biggest culprit is Ilanga at a huge +29.1% MIW Index (CPM), with three other titles coming in at over 20% MIW Index (CPM).
Consumer magazines are a jumbled lot. Most rate increases are low, and some have even shown decreases. Most circulations of magazines are down, Compleat Golfer by as much as 38.1%, and a good proportion of Media24’s black orientated mags have fared badly. However it’s not all bad news. The overall magazines rate is +5.44%. Performance is -4.57% which yields a +11.50% MIW Index (CPM).
Radio
Rates +11.54%
Performance 0.0% (refer to Technical Note above)
MIW Index (CPM) +11.54%
Black format stations upped their rates by +10.83% and CIW (Coloured Indian White) format stations by 11.86%. Due to methodology changes at Saarf it means that a Performance Index cannot be calculated. Nevertheless some stations have bucked the trend; among them Gagasi and Heart. Rate increases are led by NW FM, Capricorn and 702. We’d urge marketers to look at the cost per thousand figures. The average black format station comes in at R17.73 whereas the average CIW is R71.95. Rate changes must be evaluated against comparative formats, that’s where the value will be found.
Out of Home
Rates +2.5%
Performance change none
MIW Index (CPM) +2.5%
Out of Home contractors are hiking rates, but at levels lower than most other media channels and somewhat beneath CPI. Much depends on the format, advertiser demand and location. A good format unit in prime position still commands a premium rate.
Cinema
Rates +0.0%
Performance +5.0% (refer to Technical Note above)
MIW Index (CPM) -4.8%
The cinema Index is now calculated with the top 15 Ster Kinekor houses (140 screens). Cinemark has not increased the real average rate over 2012, a marginal increase in attendance because of better Hollywood/Bollywood products which results in a decrease in MIW Index (CPM).
Online
Rates +6.3%
Performance 0.00%
MIW Index (CPM) +6.3%
Some of the asking rates for the top eight online sites tracked by Inflation Watch have increased and has hiked the category. Be aware that many sites do offer massive discounts, seemingly at levels greater than any other medium, and this factor must be built into any evaluation. All of the sites tracked charge on a cost per thousand basis so the performance changes, which are significant for the medium, can be factored out of the calculations.
Total All Media
Rates +4.36%
Performance -1.72%
MIW Index (CPM) +6.43%
Rates indicate a continued slackening over previous periods, largely due to a minimal increase in free-to-air and a decrease in paid TV’s rates. Remember there is no performance reading for TV and radio so advertisers are urged to study individual station’s quarterly analysis in order to establish a likely trend.
In conclusion, 2012 yielded the lowest Rate Index (+3.98%) since the analysis started back in 1986. 2013 is only marginally higher at 4.36%, and has the second lowest Rate Index. In comparison it is still lower than the Consumer Price Index of 5.7%.
This post was first published by The MediaShop. Follow on Twitter @MediaShopZA
IMAGE: SA money / Wikimedia / (WT-shared) NJR ZA
