As we close out 2025, South Africa’s film and television industry finds itself in a strange, uneasy place.
Not collapsing, not thriving, but suspended somewhere in between. Local production has depleted sharply, commissioning has slowed and the knock-on effect has been felt most painfully by freelancers, actors and crew who live from contract to contract. This has been a genuinely hard year for the industry, financially and psychologically.
At the same time, we are watching massive structural shifts happening above our heads. One of the most significant is the evolving relationship between Netflix and Warner Bros. As audiences in Africa are suddenly flooded with a new wave of Warner Bros and HBO-backed content via Netflix, the competitive landscape changes overnight.
For years, platforms like DStv and Canal+ have relied heavily on HBO and Warner Bros titles as premium audience drivers. Those shows were a key reason people subscribed and stayed. Now those same titles are increasingly sitting with their biggest global competitor. That creates an uncomfortable and uncertain reality for regional broadcasters who are not going to sit quietly while their competitive advantage is eroded.
More noise, more competition
What this means for African content pipelines, commissioning strategies and long-term investment is still unclear. We are heading into a period where platforms are reassessing who they serve, what they fund and where they place their bets.
More content does not automatically mean more opportunity. In many cases, it means more noise, more competition, and tougher decisions about what actually gets made.
Layered on top of this is the industry-wide anxiety around AI. Some of that concern is valid, but much of it is driven by fear rather than understanding. AI is not a single moment that arrives and replaces people. It is a set of tools that will reward those who adapt early and punish those who pretend it is not happening.
The real danger for South Africa is not AI itself, but waiting too long to engage with it meaningfully.
Diversify beyond South Africa
One thing has become very clear: no film or post-production business in South Africa can rely solely on the local economy anymore. The volume simply is not there. At The Refinery, we made a deliberate decision to diversify beyond South Africa, creatively and geographically, and 2025 tested that strategy fully.
Despite the global slowdown, The Refinery delivered an unprecedented volume of work across film, television, streaming, and advertising this year. That scale was only possible because of long-term investment in systems, remote collaboration, and senior talent who can operate independently without compromising quality. Scale only works if the culture supports it.
One of the most important creative milestones this year was attracting international projects that were not shot in South Africa, yet chose to bring their post-production work here. Projects involving talent such as Kevin Costner and Will Smith did not come to us because South Africa is cheap.
In fact, with the rand performing stronger than expected, price alone is no longer our primary advantage.
They came because of the calibre of talent.
Because of taste and trust.
Because South African artists and technicians consistently deliver at a global level.
That distinction matters. Racing each other to the bottom on price is unsustainable. Competing on excellence is the only long-term strategy.
Cautious confidence
Looking ahead, what gives me cautious confidence is not a sudden rebound in production, but a slow shift in mindset. The future of our industry depends on collaboration over competition, on using our networks to lift each other rather than undercutting one another, and on recognising that if we all chase the lowest possible margin, the industry hollow outs entirely.
Actors, crew, post houses, producers, we are all feeling the same pressure from different angles. This is the moment to band together, think globally, and build businesses and careers that can withstand cycles rather than rely on short-term booms.
2026 will not be about returning to how things were. It will be about forging forward into something new. For us, that means expanding international relationships, bringing more internally developed projects into the ecosystem, investing in people who can grow beyond traditional job descriptions and engaging with new technology deliberately rather than fearfully.
South Africa still has extraordinary creative talent. The challenge now is whether we build the structures to protect it or continue waiting for certainty that may never come.
Alastair Orr is CEO of The Refinery, a South African post-production and VFX (Visual Effects) company, known for its innovative work in film, television, and music videos, including high-profile projects like Will Smith’s Beautiful Scars, utilising cutting-edge tech like LED volumes.
