Mike Leahy’s Media Inflation Watch Figures have been released. These figures cover the period January – March 2012 and the results are anything but pretty, says The MediaShop in it’s ShopTalk. The AMF’s (Advertising Media Forum) comments regarding these figures are also included.
TELEVISION
Rates: Up +17.14%
Performance: Down -0.39%
MIW Index (CPM): Up +19.79%
No surprise to us: SABC TV has become very aggressive with its rate setting. SABC 1’s 20 spot schedule is a massive +34.4% up which with a slump of -9.2% in viewership yields a massive +48.0% MIW (CPM) increase. SABC 2 isnt much better. e.tv was considerably more conservative with rates at just +1.4% and an increase in performance resulting in a -1.0% MIW (CPM).
There are big differences between free-to-air and paid. Free-to-air yields rates at an average +18.7% with audience -2.7% and an MIW Index (CPM) of +23.6%. Pay TV (ie DStv) registers lower rate increase of 13.4% and still increases audience at 5.2%, thus pulling back the MIW (CPM) to +10.5%.
TV is a major component of the All Media mix. When TV gets aggressive/loses performance the All Media Index is affected disproportionately. This of course makes us all very uncomfortable as it puts tremendous pressure on budget setting and monitoring.
Rates: Up +5.36%
Performance: Down -5.12%
MIW Index (CPM): Up +11.76%
The figures are being driven by specific areas within the print arena: The low comes, surprisingly, from weekends/weeklies, at +6.8% for MIW (CPM). This is largely due to a rate standstill for the big Media24 newspapers. The high is again daily newspapers at +16.0%. Community newspapers comes in at +7.7%, consumer magazines is +11.0% and business-to-business is +11.2% MIW (CPM) increase.
Not all daily newspapers are affected equally. Isolezwe looks particularly good compared to the rest of the category. But there are 4 titles in the +20% range and 1 over 30%. Among the weeklies Ilanga, Soccer Laduma, Post, Sunday Sun and Rapport all deliver low MIW (CPM) increases and City Press was a very creditable negative -13.6% MIW (CPM) number.
RADIO
Rates: Up +6.17%
Performance: Down -4.92%
MIW Index (CPM): Up +14.70%
Wow! A disastrous RAMS 2012/1 covering fieldwork October 2011 to March 2012 has pushed back radio’s audience gains of the last year or so, changing the final 2011 MIW (CPM) index and yielding a poor 2012 Q1 result. By and large the CIW format stations are more negatively affected than the black. When RAMS 2012/2 comes out later in June we’ll do an interim update of the medium to see if one RAMS study introduced a trend or is a blip in the data set.
OUT OF HOME
Rates: Static +0.00%
MIW Index (CPM): Static +0.00%
Important outdoor contractors and buyers contacted confirm that the out of home industry kept their 2012 rates at 2011 levels.
CINEMA
Rates: Up +16.20%
Performance: Up +9.30%
MIW Index (CPM): Up +6.40%
The first set of figures for some time that cinema will be happy to see. But the data is largely 2011 performance so this may change for the even better or worse!
ONLINE
Rates: Down -1.30%
Performance: Static 0.00%
MIW Index (CPM): Down -1.3%
Leahy has now included online as a medium in Inflation Watch and in the CPM Analysis. They cannot get revenues for individual sites so an intra-medium weighting is not possible. To evaluate online they have created a schedule of eight of the top regular sites by interest/audience. All of them levied rates on a CPM basis so the sum of the ratecard cost of 1×1,000 audience in each is trended.
The use of this metric means it is possible to strip out audience growth to track real input rate % change. Be aware that many sites do offer massive discounts, perhaps at levels higher than any other medium. This factor must be built into any evaluations done.
TOTAL ALL MEDIA INFLATION
Rates: Up +10.45%
Performance: Down -2.33%
MIW Index (CPM): Up +14.71%
The above figures are most definitely scary as they affect the year’s inflation forcasts and ultimately clients’ budgets, both current and future.
We can advise that the SABC TV rates have been scrutinised by the AMF (Advertising Media Forum) on behalf of all advertisers. SABC TV have advised that their rate increases for the year will be between 10% and 15% but they foresee that their increases will be more than likely lower than their projections.
The all day average rate for SABC TV is runnint at 9% increase 2012 compared to 2011. The shoulder time average cost is down by 10% but prime time average cost is up by 30%! This we know when you are looking to advertise on Generations in August and have to pay a massive R170 000 for 1 x 30″ commercial!
We will watch the media inflations intently for the rest of the year.
Shop Talk is published by The MediaShop and is posted here with their permission.
