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Is ‘obsolescence before maturity’ agentic AI’s fate?

AI is evolving so fast right now that most agentic AI projects are likely to be obsolete before they have a chance to reach maturity.

by Dave Morgan
August 4, 2025
in Advertising
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Is ‘obsolescence before maturity’ agentic AI’s fate?
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I shared a fun dinner Tuesday night with longtime friends and legendary tech CEOs Matt Blumberg, Chad Dickerson and Mark Josephson.
We had a particular mind-stretching moment when Matt shared a concept he’d just heard at a recent Gartner event: that AI is evolving so fast right now that most agentic AI projects are likely to be obsolete before they have a chance to reach maturity.

That is a very powerful concept to wrap your head around — and the more I think about it, the more I agree with it.

Here’s why:

Failure of corporate imagination

It’s certain that AI models will continue changing faster than most

Models don’t fit complex business cases

Too many people are trying to solve every kitchen-sink issue in their company — the more complex, the better. Someday, agentic AI will be ready for those approaches, but not yet. By the time someone can get a model to fit, the data won’t be ready, and the market will have moved on.

Problems with data quality and costs, lack of controls, and failure to drive business value

One of Gartner’s predictions for why so many agentic AI projects will fail: These projects will not solve for data quality, for inflating cost, for lack of controls and for failure to drive real value in the business.

We could look backward, replace the term “agentic AI” with “CRM” or “big data,” and see a history of failures for “bright, shiny object” tech opportunities of old for all those same reasons.

I am super-bullish on what AI will do to transform our industry. But I know that we’ll see a bunch of missteps along the way. Which is why it was a lot of fun to talk about this with such experienced entrepreneurs and CEOs, particularly since Chad and Mark are two of the very top executive coaches out there in the tech world these days.

What’s your sense of things? Will “obsolescence before maturity” be the epitaph for all too many of our favourite AI projects of today?

Agentic project plans

They will be on a treadmill running faster than they can run. The most likely solve will be highly imaginative project scopes that will carry a lot of uncertainty and engender a lot of risk. But most large corporations do not possess deep imagination, nor do they encourage risk.

Too much focus on buzz rather than business

Let’s face it, a lot of agentic projects today are launched to “keep up with the Joneses” — basically, lots of folks running around with hammers looking for nails. So many agentic AI projects today lack the thoughtfulness, planning and focus essential for any chances of success.

This story was first published by MediaPost.com and is republished with the permission of the author.


Dave Morgan, a lawyer by training, is the CEO and founder of Simulmedia. He previously founded and ran both TACODA, Inc, an online advertising company that pioneered behavioural online marketing and was acquired by AOL in 2007 for $275 million, and Real Media, Inc, one of the world’s first ad serving and online ad network companies and a predecessor to 24/7 Real Media (TFSM), which was later sold to WPP for $649 million. Follow him on Twitter  @davemorgannyc


 

Tags: agentic AIAIartificial intelligenceDave MorganSimulmedia

Dave Morgan

Dave is the CEO and founder of Simulmedia. He previously founded and ran both TACODA, Inc., an online advertising company that pioneered behavioral online marketing and was acquired by AOL in 2007 for $275 million, and Real Media, Inc., one of the world’s first ad serving and online ad network companies and a predecessor to 24/7 Real Media (TFSM), which was later sold to WPP for $649 million. After the sale of TACODA, Dave served as Executive Vice President, Global Advertising Strategy, at AOL, a Time Warner Company (TWX). A lawyer by training, Dave served as General Counsel and Director of New Media Ventures at the Pennsylvania Newspaper Association in the early 1990’s. Dave received a B.A. in Political Science from The Pennsylvania State University and a J.D. from the Dickinson School of Law. He serves on the boards of the International Radio and Television Society (IRTS) and the American Press Institute (API), and was a long-time member of the executive committee and board of directors of the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB). He and his wife, writer Lorea Canales, live in Manhattan with their two daughters.

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