Mike Leahy’s latest MIW figures were released at the end of last week. As always it’s interesting to see who’s up and who’s down in terms of rates as this affects advertising budgets. The latest figures cover the period October – December 2012 and therefore what follows is a full 12-month period analysis, January – December 2012 compared to 2011.
Important technical note: New weighting measures were introduced into RAMS in 2011 Q3. Thus audiences of 2011 Q3 and later should not be compared directly to audiences of previous periods. This means it is inadvisable to combine the apples and pears of audiences to produce a 2011 annual average per station, and so a CPM for that year. Accordingly the only real measure of trend for the year is the Rate Index and, in line with previous occasions in which RAMS methodology has changed, the Rate Index is duplicated in the MIW (CPM) Index.
Changes have also occurred in TV measurement. New weighting measures were used in TAMS in 2012 Q3. And, as per radio, it is therefore inadvisable to directly compare the audiences of 2012 Q3 and later with those of previous periods. This also results in the Rate Index being duplicated in the MIW (CPM) Index for 2012.
In cinema, Cinemark ceased issuing monthly audience figures from 2011 June. Accordingly, Jun-Dec 2011 audiences are based on the average of 2011 April and 2011 May audiences numbers. From 2012 Q1 Inflation Watch uses ratecards only. Hence the performance index is set to zero and the rate Index is duplicated in the MIW (CPM) Index.
TV
Rates +1.82%
Performance 0.00% (refer to Technical Note above)
MIW Index (CPM) +1.82%
The pace of SABC’s rate increases continues to slacken (SABC 3 is in negative territory). The guys at e.tv remain consistent. Thus free-to-air’s rates are up by 4.7% (remember with no performance input possible the MIW Index (CPM) is the same as the rate Index).
Over at DStv Media Sales, the picture is again very different. In 2012 Q2 the rates for many of the packages were cut and/or additional spots provided. This carried through to the balance of the year so as to enable a very buyer friendly -5.4% rate index over 2011.
Rates +5.56%
Performance -5.59%
MIW Index (CPM) +12.84%
The print media category is little changed since the last release of Media Inflation Watch. Circulations continue downwards for many but not all titles. This is most notable amongst dailies, which put on +5.3% in rate but lost -9.45% in performance (circulation). This got them a +17.19% MIW Index (CPM).
Most of Media24’s dailies had a rate freeze. Thus Die Burger, which had a smallish circulation decrease, managed to come in at +4.6% MIW (CPM) Index. The Herald and Isolezwe put on circulation. In contrast the Independent’s dailies The Star and Cape Argus have lost heavily in the circulation race and delivered a +31.7% and +49.3% MIW Index (CPM) respectively.
Weekend and weekly newspapers and consumer magazines were a mixed bunch but generally fared better than dailies. Some lost circulation only lightly. Soccer Laduma put on circulation, which, with a +10% rate increase, meant a lowish MIW Index (CPM) of +6.6%.
Consumer magazines were also a mixed bag. Most rate increases were low, and even some decreases. Circulations of some notable magazines were up but most were down. Cars in Action, FHM, PC Format, Sawubona and Your Family all registered MIW (CPM) Indices of over 25%. In all consumer magazine rates were +5.3%, performance -4.6% and MIW Index (CPM) +11.1%.
Radio
Rates +8.01%
Performance 0.00% (refer to technical note above)
MIW Index (CPM) +8.01%
Black format stations upped their rates by +8.85%, which with no performance measure possible, provided a +8.85% MIW Index (CPM). The CIW format stations rates/MIW Index (CPM) is up by a lower +7.6%.
That said, take a look at the cost per thousands. The average black format station comes in at R18.03 whereas the average CIW is R59.94.
Out of Home
Rates +2.5%
Performance change none
MIW Index (CPM) +2.5%
Out of home contractors are actually hiking rates but at levels lower than most other media, and somewhat beneath the CPI. Much depends on the format, advertiser demand, and location…and of course, ratecard rates remain highly negotiable!
Cinema
Rates +6.2%
Performance 0.00% (refer to technical note above)
MIW Index (CPM) +6.2%
Despite an increase in digital and 3D screens the average rate for a Ster-Kinekor screen marketed through Cinemark came down to +5.2% in the ratecard dated 1 July 2012, compared to an increase of +23.9% 2011 over 2010.
Online
Rates -1.30%
Performance 0.00%
MIW Index (CPM) -1.3%
Online is now included as a medium in Inflation Watch and in the CPM Analysis. MIW are not able to get revenues for individual sites so an intra-medium weighting is not possible. To evaluate online, MIW created a schedule of eight of the top regular sites by interest/audience. All of them charge rates on a CPM basis so the sum of the ratecard cost of 1×1000 audience in each is trended. The use of this metric means MIW are able to strip out audience growth to track real input rate % change.
Total All
Media Rates +3.98%
Performance -1.87%
MIW Index (CPM) +6.29%
Rates indicate a significant slackening over previous periods, largely due to a slowdown in the growth of TV’s rates. Remember there is no performance reading for TV, radio and cinema.
2012 has yielded the lowest rate Index since the analysis started back in 1986. It is the first time the Index has dipped beneath 4% (albeit only just). And in only two years the Rate Index has fallen beneath 5% – 2002 (4.67%) and 2009 (4.24%).
Mike Leahy is a director at Ibis Media Manager.
This post was first published by The MediaShop, and is republished here with their kind permission.
