As retailers in South Africa prepare for what they hope will be an end-of-year boom, it’s worth asking the question: how are consumer class adults with disposable income really feeling? And the answer in the data seems to show they may have some guardrails around their optimism.
The annual BrandMapp survey of the top 30% of adults by household income is still in field, but preliminary results are showing that although consumer confidence has dipped since the optimism around the 2024 Government of National Unity, it has remained higher than the anxiety-ridden outlook of 2023.
“That tells a story in itself,” says Brandon de Kock, director of Storytelling for BrandMapp. “Despite slower than expected reforms, rising living costs and a tough labour market, the national taxpayer mood hasn’t slipped back to its lowest ebb and we estimate that about a third of the market still sees enough progress to be optimistic about the future.
“We’ve always measured about 40% of people feeling unsure while the rest see-saw between optimism and pessimism, but fortunately we’re still on the right side of that equation as we head towards the end of 2025. In other words, we may be squeezed, but there’s still just enough breathing room to see out the year out on a reasonably good vibe.
“Given the weird goings-on in the world, Trumpian dictates putting our export economy in danger, our supposedly contentious stand on the Middle East making things tricky and a general feeling of anxiety about ‘the end of the world being nigh’, the fact that only a quarter of consumer class South Africans are pessimistic about our future speaks volumes for the spirit of hopefulness that continues to exist among the tax-paying segment of South African society.
“While their outlook isn’t buoyant, it is resilient; revealing a mindset shaped by hard-earned realism and the hope that incremental improvements can still add up to meaningful change in the year ahead.”
Navigating glass half full and half empty scenarios
De Kock says, “In South Africa, we speak so much about the negatives, but there really is a lot to be grateful for, from the unbridled joy that our national sports’ achievements bring to no load-shedding during a jolly cold winter and observing some aggressive young talent in the political theatre causing trouble for the corrupt. We’re a country that can still win a rugby match with 13 guys on the field and that spirit seems to permeate through the consumer class!”
If you take a purely economic view though, as always, we live in confusing, up-and-down, times particularly seen through the light of ‘official’ barometers. Consumer confidence, according to the BER (Bureau for Economic Research), declined to -13 toward the end of the year.
“This is still above the record low of -20 in the first quarter, when we really were feeling ‘Trumped’; and was apparently driven by the below-average income segment who are clearly feeling the greatest pain at rising costs,” says De Kock.
“On the other hand, we cannot discount that in 2025, new passenger vehicle sales are through the roof and at their highest levels since 2017! A clear indication that a significant number of consumers with aspirations to buy a new car, have felt financially safe enough this year to act on their desires.”
Vivid divergence in two economic landscapes
In 2025, South Africa’s economic realities continued to reflect the stark contrast between a thriving financial market and deepening income inequality. This year, the JSE (Johannesburg Stock Exchange) soared past a historic milestone of 100,000 points by mid-year and has climbed further to over 112 000 by November.
It is among the best-performing 2025 financial markets globally. This outstanding vibrance contrasts jarringly with the lived economic stress of the working poor and broader society, where income inequality remains entrenched and ever-rising living costs fall well below wage increases.
“As always, it’s never a simple picture to paint, and South Africa remains a country of parallel universes. At the top of the income pyramid, the JSE is rocking, the exchange rate has held relatively firm, and interest rate cuts and a reduction in the repo rate are a bonus for those who can afford to take advantage,” De Kock says.
And he adds, “At the bottom, despite almost a quarter of a million new jobs created in the past year, the expanded unemployment rate is still sitting at around 40%. So, the divide is getting bigger, which is not a good thing, but the data tells us that there’s a substantial segment of our society who can thankfully get on with building the economy and, hopefully, set the foundation for a better future for all.”
BrandMapp 2025 insights will be available directly from the BrandMapp team at WhyFive Insights and by subscription via Telmar, Softcopy, Nielsen and Eighty20. For data access email Julie-anne@whyfive.co.za
