Way back in Q1 of 2023, I wrote an article here that predicted the web will see a massive traffic drop of 50% in the next five years.
It’s now two years later, and I am seeing many other people make similar predictions. The open web is at the precipice of a fundamental shift, and I’m not sure people are paying close enough attention.
The web is about to be predominantly mobile, video and AI. Basic web sites that are not ecommerce-focused are simply going to become knowledge bases for AI to index, extract and process.
The homepage might be beautiful still, since people will check it once to verify that they feel good about a brand or service, but AI agents will gather the insights, process and deliver that to users in a concise and applicable manner, and move on.
Video is going to skyrocket in terms of overall percentage of total web traffic. Meanwhile, general pageviews and impressions will fall, all of which will have a very detrimental impact on display ads.
This shift might take more than three additional years, but I do think in the next three to five years, this is going to be the way we engage with digital media.
X-Factor is social media
The only X factor I still can’t figure out is social media. AI doesn’t replace the doom-scrolling most people still do. I should also point out that social media is where most people experience the echo chamber of their news, and while all that is influenced by AI, I am not certain people will give up on the doom scroll.
That means social media may be the last bastion for display advertising once things settle in.
Immersive worlds and augmented reality are also an X factor to consider. The devices are still too clunky and expensive for most day-to-day use, but that will change, and they will become a more ubiquitous tool. Devices like the Meta Ray-Bans seem to be gathering steam, too.
But those glasses are ripe for AI integration and video overlays more than traditional websites, which would seem to bolster my opinion that the shift is going to happen.
So where does that leave display advertising?
Outside the US
In the U.S., I imagine a steep decline in advertisers’ ability to use this format, because the volume won’t be there.
But these technology advances require disposable income and a shift in the landscape that may take much longer in other countries. So display could become a tool mostly used outside the US.
That happened in mobile for many years, with most mobile advertising being more effective globally than locally in the US. The same goes for in-game advertising, which seems to thrive outside of the US, but is still a nascent medium in the States.
Display-based ad-tech companies will have to shift their sites to offshore markets if they want to continue to see growth, while U.S.-based advertising will be very much around video.
It seems the rest of the market is waking up to these facts and is talking about and planning for them. How are you looking at your respective businesses and making plans for the inevitable future?
This story was first published by MediaPost.com and is republished with the permission of the author.
Cory Treffiletti is chief marketing officer at generative AI-powered product placement platform, Rembrand. He was previously SVP at FIS. He has been a thought leader, executive and business driver in the digital media landscape since 1994. In addition to authoring a weekly column on digital media, advertising and marketing since 2000 for MediaPost‘s Online Spin, Treffiletti has been a successful executive, media expert and/or founding team member for a number of companies, and published a book, Internet Ad Pioneers, in 2012.
